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KMID : 0371819970290010025
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Nuclear Engineering and Technology
1997 Volume.29 No. 1 p.25 ~ p.34
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Expert Opinion Elicitation Process Using a Fuzzy Probability
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Yu Donghan
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Abstract
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This study presents a new approach for expert opinion elicitation process to assess an uncertainty inherent in accident management. The need to work with rare events and limited data in accident management leads analysts to use expert opinions extensively. Unlike the conventional approach using point-valued probabilities, the study proposes the concept of fuzzy probability to represent ex-pert opinion. The use of fuzzy probability has an advantage over the conventional approach when an expert´s judgment is used under limited data and imprecise knowledge. The study demonstrates a method of combining and propagating fuzzy probabilities. Finally, the proposed methodology is applied to the evaluation of the probability of a bottom head failure for the flooded case in the: Peach Bottom BWR nuclear power plant.
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